The year-long negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program have failed to reach an agreement by the november 24 deadline. At issue, in particular, was the number of centrifuges that Iran would be allowed to operate to enrich its uranium into weapons-grade material. It currently operates about 10,000, while the P5+1 countries initially aimed to bring that number below 4,000.
Starting in mid september, Hypermind featured a prediction market on this question, as part of a geopolitical contest featuring questions formulated by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) ACE project.
As the chart shows, Hypermind’s forecast was correctly dire throughout the negotiations, predicting that no deal would be reached on that critical issue. Only briefly did it dip down from around 80% probability of “no agreement” to 50/50 uncertainty. The initial dip was caused by reports that the P5+1 countries, growing desperate for a deal, might allow Iran to operate 5 or 6,000 centrifuges… But the Hypermind prediction traders quickly resolved that this wouldn’t save the negotiations.